The Department of Health has published its annual statistical bulletin on Northern Ireland care leavers, revealing that while more young people are leaving care than in previous years, educational attainment among this vulnerable group has declined. The figures, released on 18 February 2026, also highlight significant data gaps caused by ongoing industrial action within the health service, raising questions about the reliability of year-on-year comparisons.
The report tracks outcomes for 467 care leavers aged 16 to 18 during the 2024/25 financial year—an increase from 393 in the previous year—alongside 285 young people who turned 19 during the same period. However, officials caution that direct comparisons with previous years are complicated by missing data from the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust, which did not submit information due to “action short of strike among Trust workforces.”
Educational Attainment Falls Despite Broader Policy Focus
The statistics reveal a concerning drop in educational outcomes. Only 57% of care leavers aged 16-18 held GCSEs or other qualifications in 2024/25, down from 59% the previous year. More starkly, just 23% achieved five GCSEs at grades A*-C or higher—a significant fall from 28% in 2023/24.
This places care leavers far behind their peers in the general school population. While 87.4% of all Northern Ireland school leavers achieved at least five GCSEs at grades A*-C in 2023/24, only 23% of care leavers reached this benchmark. The gap is equally pronounced in special educational needs, with 19% of care leavers holding a Statement of Educational Need compared to just 6% of the general school leaver population.
Employment and Engagement Show Mixed Progress
Despite falling qualification rates, engagement in education, training or employment has improved. Among 16-18 year-old care leavers:
- 75% were in full-time or part-time education, training or employment—up from 71% the previous year
- 15% were unemployed—down from 21% in 2023/24
- 10% were economically inactive due to caring responsibilities or illness/disabilities—up from 8%
For those aged 19, the picture regarding ongoing support is more concerning. While 71% were in education, training or employment (up from 69%), contact with Health and Social Care Trusts has dropped sharply. Only 44% of 19-year-old care leavers were in contact with their Trust at least once a month, compared to 71% the previous year. Just 64% received ongoing support from social services, down from 75%.
Data Quality Concerns Complicate Analysis
The absence of Belfast HSC Trust data represents a significant gap in the 2024/25 statistics. The Department of Health explicitly warns that “caution must therefore be taken when comparing the figures between the year 2024/25 and previous years.” This missing data complicates assessments of whether the increase in care leaver numbers—from 393 to 467 for the 16-18 cohort—reflects a genuine rise in children entering care, or simply improved recording in some trusts offset by Belfast’s absence.
Context of Vulnerability and Recent Policy Changes
The publication comes amid growing awareness of the long-term challenges facing care-experienced young people. Recent research from ADR Northern Ireland found that 63.9% of care leavers experience homelessness, compared to just 10.1% of young people with no social care history, with the risk highest in the first two years after leaving care.
The statistics also follow the 2024 launch of the New Foundations initiative, a cross-departmental programme designed to provide “safe, stable housing, tailored support, and opportunities for education and employment” for young people leaving care. The 2024/25 figures may serve as a baseline to measure this programme’s effectiveness, though the data gaps will complicate this assessment.
Critical Questions Remain
The bulletin raises several questions that policymakers and advocates may need to address:
- Why has educational attainment declined among care leavers despite targeted early intervention programmes and increased investment in special educational needs provision?
- What explains the sharp drop in monthly contact between 19-year-olds and social services, and does this indicate a withdrawal of support at a critical transition point?
- How significantly does the missing Belfast Trust data skew the overall picture, particularly regarding the apparent increase in care leaver numbers?
- With 6% of 19-year-old care leavers becoming parents—double the rate in the general population—are sufficient support mechanisms in place for this particularly vulnerable group of young families?
- Can the improvement in employment figures be sustained given the widening qualifications gap between care leavers and their peers?
The next release of Northern Ireland Care Leavers statistics is scheduled for January 2027. In the interim, the Department of Health will need to address the data collection challenges that have left significant gaps in this year’s figures, particularly if the New Foundations programme is to be properly evaluated against its stated aims of improving outcomes for care leavers.
The full statistical tables and methodology notes are available on the Department of Health website.